한국생산성학회

In this paper, we examined various impact factors composed of macroeconomic and asset market-related variables to influence pension asset demands centered on private retirement pensions in the 22 OECD member countries for the recent 19 years. Major estimation results from panel data regressions are as follows. First, an increase in elderly population shows to increase demand for pension assets but to affect negatively growth of pension assets leaving the chance of future rapid decumulation of pension assets especially in the fast aging countries like Korea. Second, household debt to GDP also shows a positive effect on the demand for pension assets at the beginning but a negative effect on the growth of pension assets afterwards. This finding reveals that household debt mainly depends on price sensitivity of financial assets rather than on household income also leaving room for the direction of future possible disaster. Third, per capita GDP and real economic gowth rate are found to to be positve effects on the growth of pension assets confirming the fact that only continuous economic growth can affect favorably pension asset management. Fourth, domestic and global equity returns turn out to be the positive impact fators on the growth of pension asset demand reassuring the fact that equity asset investment is the right tool for the long-term asset management and also promoting necessity for employing high skilled fund managers and high technology oriented equipment such as artificial intelligence in the pension asset management sectors. Fifth, long term government bond yield is proven to be the negative factor to the pension asset demand but also taking a role to decrease the growth rate of pension asset afterwards. These two contradicting results reflect ambilateral effects of interest rates; one is a negative effect on asset prices by increaing discounts and the other is a positive effect of increasing interest income to the pension assets. Lastly, the supply factor in the asset market variable chosen as stock market capitalization to GDP is regretfully to be seen to have any statistically significant effects on the pension asset demand and its growth. With all these findings of pension asset markets we recommend such policy suggestions as espansion of elderly job market, rebuilding of longevity oriented industry structure, and enhancing support programs on the newly innovative growth fields suitable for the so-called 4th industustrial revolution era.